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December 20, 2011

Tire prices to remain firm for the next several months  

I made my annual pilgrimage to the SEMA Show in November. With only a few exceptions, almost every tire dealer I spoke with said: a) business remains challenging, and b) they plan to buy very cautiously in the coming months.

Tags: Ludwig Report, Saul Ludwig

November 1, 2011

With gas prices down and driving levels up, expect increased tire demand  

This year has been characterized by soft retail demand, high tire prices forced by surging raw materials, poor fill rates early in the year and new leaders of North American operations at both Goodyear and Cooper Tire.

Tags: Ludwig, Ludwig Report, Saul Ludwig

October 19, 2011

Mother Nature will have big impact on upcoming tire sales forecast  

The challenge of selling big ticket products in today’s economic climate is indeed daunting, and to boot, with most tire companies just having announced a new round of price hikes, your job won’t get any easier.

Tags: Ludwig Report, Saul Ludwig, Tire sales

September 28, 2011

Heavy dose of creativity is needed to increase business  

Uncertain European economies, the U.S. debt crisis, Congressional gridlock, 9.2% unemployment and a slumping stock market are enough to explain why consumers are putting off big ticket purchases as long as possible. Add to that, a $1,000 bill for four tires, alignment and a few other suggested repairs further shocks your customers.

Tags: Ludwig Report, Saul Ludwig

August 29, 2011

Fill rates show improvement as manufacturers build inventories  

The U.S. consumer is stretched and purchases that can be postponed are being put off. My survey of tire dealers across the country point to slow sales of consumer tires with many dealers reporting comp store tire volume declines of more than 5% in June with not much improvement seen in July.

Tags: Inventory, Ludwig Report, Saul Ludwig

July 29, 2011

Now is the time to check on your winter tire orders  

Last month I warned about softer retail sales and based on my dealer contacts, business in May and thus far in June was especially challenging. Weak consumer tire shipments (May 2011 vs. May 2010 was down 12%) allowed manufacturers to build their inventories so fill rates are getting better.

Tags: Ludwig Report, Saul Ludwig

June 28, 2011

While business remains soft, a rebound is predicted for later this year  

Last month I commented that at $4 a gallon for gasoline, there would likely be some back-off in driving leading to softer tire sales. Based on contacts with dealers throughout the country, retail tire sales have been weak since April.

Tags: Ludwig Report, Saul Ludwig

May 25, 2011

High fuel prices will impact consumer driving patterns and tire demand  

Besides my regular channel checks with tire dealers and manufacturers, I speak often with suppliers of raw materials including producers of synthetic rubber, carbon black, steel cord and polyester. Their message is that they cannot keep up with demand from tire manufacturers.

Tags: Ludwig Report, Saul Ludwig

April 27, 2011

Stock prices suggest better times for the tire industry  

As I write this comment on March 22, the stock market — often a leading indicator — is saying good things about the tire industry. Year-to-date as of today, the S&P 500 Index is up 4% but the tire stocks are doing even better.

Tags: Ludwig Report, Saul Ludwig

March 23, 2011

Despite higher prices, tire demand to increase by 3%  

As expected, wholesale tire prices are going up as much as 8% in March as raw materials took a big jump up in January 2011. While natural rubber is the most visible as its climb is unprecedented in history, other materials including synthetic rubber, carbon black, steel and chemicals also are up.

Tags: Ludwig Report, Saul Ludwig

February 23, 2011

Look for a renewed consumer focus on performance vs. price  

Gasoline prices seem to be increasing again with prices for regular north of $3 a gallon almost everywhere. While I do not expect driving levels to be meaningfully impacted anytime soon (unless gasoline approaches $4 a gallon), you should cite higher gasoline prices as a way to foster sales of fuel efficient tires.

Tags: Ludwig Report, Saul Ludwig

“With unemployment around 10% — and there being no signs of it getting much better anytime soon — the recovery is fragile, in my opinion,” says analyst Saul Ludwig.
January 31, 2011

Always looking ahead  Web-Only Article

We first asked analyst Saul Ludwig to predict the future of the tire industry in our January 1973 “Facts Issue.” At the time, many independent tire dealers and investors were concerned about the growth of radial tires, and the proliferation of sizes.

Tags: Analysis, Ludwig Report, Saul Ludwig

January 25, 2011

Look for tire demand and production to continue to increase  

When the last round of tire price hikes were announced last September/October, natural rubber was selling at about $1.50/lb.; today it is at $2.20/lb. There are approximately four pounds of natural rubber in a consumer tire, so that means the cost of a tire to the manufacturer has increased $2.80 just from natural rubber alone in just three months!

Tags: Ludwig Report, Saul Ludwig

“As we look to 2010, we see all the manufacturers starting to ramp up spending,” says Saul Ludwig. “There is a general feeling that consumer tire demand will increase.”
January 27, 2010

Analyzing the tire industry in 2009 and beyond  

The drama brought about by the recession has yet to be played out, according to tire industry analyst Saul Ludwig.

Tags: Analyst, Saul Ludwig

"I think dealers are doing well," says tire industry analyst Saul Ludwig.
August 12, 2009

Mid-year report: 2009 starts poorly for the average tire dealer...  

In five months, 2009 will be history. Can we expect better results in the second half of the year than we experienced in the first half?

Tags: Bridgestone, CMA, Continental Tire, Cooper, Goodyear, Hankook, Michelin, Mid-year report, Saul Ludwig

January 30, 2009

'It was a horrible year'  

Humbling. That’s analyst Saul Ludwig’s description of 2008, a year in which the sudden collapse of some of the largest financial institutions in the world pushed an already faltering economy into a recession.

Tags: Ludwig, Saul Ludwig, tire industry analyst, Tire shipments

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