November 02, 2010
Winter 2010-2011: not as harsh
Shipments will be down this season. However, they are expected to rebound over the next four years
By: Bob Ulrich
Goodyear predicts winter tire sales in North America will reach close to 14 million units in 2010.
Harsh best describes the 2009-2010 winter season in the United States. More than 60% of the country experienced below-normal, sometimes record-breaking cold temperatures.
In February, the national average temperature was 32.4 degrees Fahrenheit, or 2.2 degrees below the long-term average, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The result was good for tire dealers in the U.S. and Canada. Between 14 million and 15 million winter tires were sold in 2009, a record.
Based on Rubber Manufacturers Association (RMA) data, that number may be propped up by Canadian shipments. Domestically, shipments of replacement “snow and traction tires,” which the RMA defines as having winter, all-terrain or traction treads, were down 7.3% in 2009 compared to 2008.
What can dealers expect this winter? The 2011 “Farmers’ Almanac,” which claims a success rate of between 80% and 85%, may have the answer.
Cold front to the east
The “Farmers’ Almanac,” which did a good job of predicting what the weather would be like last winter, says this year’s winter season will have a “split personality.” Specifically:
1. There will be colder-than-normal winter temperatures in the eastern third of the country from New England to Florida.
2. There will be milder-than-normal winter temperatures for the western states “from the Pacific Coast inland as far as the Rockies and the western Great Plains.”
3. There will be near-normal winter temperatures for the middle third of the country, which includes Minnesota, Wisconsin and Kansas.
The almanac expects three major storm tracks to account for a lot of hail, rain, sleet and snow across the U.S.
“One will be across the Gulf Coast and Southeast... from lower Texas across the South into the Mid-Atlantic region.” A second storm will bring “snowier-than-normal conditions” to parts of the Northern and Central Plains, Ohio River and Great Lakes regions.
As the storm moves eastward, colder-than-normal conditions will follow.
The third storm, represented by “disturbances sweeping in from the Pacific,” will lead to above-normal precipitation in parts of the Pacific Northwest.
When will snow start to fall? The almanac predicts the first snowfall will occur in the mountains of Montana during the opening days of October.
Plenty of winter tires
This year alone, six new winter tires — in plenty of sizes — have been introduced in preparation for the upcoming winter season.
They include the Bridgestone Blizzak WS-70 and Cooper Weather-Master WSC, which were showcased in Modern Tire Dealer’s March 2010 issue and can be accessed on this Web site.
Nitto SN2. The new Nitto SN2 was developed to provide traction and predictable handling in snow. It features an advanced silica compound that evacuates water and resists hardening at lower temperatures, which helps to maintain optimum traction on wet, icy and slushy roads.
Three-dimensional, multi-wave sipes incorporated into the overall tread design increase tread block rigidity, which enhances lateral and longitudinal stiffness. This provides better handling on dry and wet roads, and more grip on ice and snow-covered roads.
The tire is available in the U.S. exclusively through American Tire Distributors Inc. in 29 T-rated sizes ranging from 175/65R14 to 245/45R18.
Sign up for our Enews and receive the latest news, trends, and product information right in your e-mail inbox.