Always looking ahead

Saul Ludwig knows the tire industry as well as anybody. He thinks we will need more tires and more jobs in 2011

By: Bob Ulrich

“With unemployment around 10% — and there being no signs of it getting much better anytime soon — the recovery is fragile, in my opinion,” says analyst Saul Ludwig.

We first asked analyst Saul Ludwig to predict the future of the tire industry in our January 1973 “Facts Issue.” At the time, many independent tire dealers and investors were concerned about the growth of radial tires, and the proliferation of sizes.

They also were confused about what was happening in their industry. The federal government was implementing business-altering legislation. States were wrestling with minimum tread-depth laws. And tires were being imported at record levels.

Ludwig was optimistic despite the uncertainty.

“When changes occur in an industry, two things happen,” he said. “First, those who view the change as an opportunity usually come out stronger; and secondly, those who view change with apprehension and uncertainty usually come out as losers.”

Thirty-eight years later, the issues haven’t changed that much. Neither has Ludwig.

Although he left KeyBanc Capital Markets in April to work for Northcoast Research Holdings LLC, he’s still a managing director, still based in Cleveland, Ohio — and still the top analyst in the business.

Ludwig admits he wasn’t optimistic enough last January, when he predicted 2010 domestic replacement and original equipment consumer tire shipments would increase 2.6% and 10%, respectively, compared to 2009.

The final numbers finished closer to 6% and 34%, as demand greatly outpaced supply through the first half of the year.

“Who would have guessed that U.S. auto and light truck sales would have increased 14% in 2010?” he says.

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Related Topics: Analysis, Ludwig Report, Saul Ludwig

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