Commercial Tire Dealer
February 15, 2011
The chaotic world of OTR tires
Global tire segment is extremely dependent on markets abroad
By: Kevin Rohlwing

Edward Lorenz was a noted mathematician and meteorologist who pioneered the study of chaos theory. He determined that when complex systems were entirely dependent on initial conditions, such as the weather, even the smallest changes could yield dramatically different results in the end. His work has been used in the fields of physics, applied mathematics, economics, biology, psychology and meteorology, to name a few. But Lorenz is probably most famous for a paper he entitled, “Does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?”
One only needs to look at recent weather patterns that have been attributed to global warming to witness the genius behind his work. When the initial conditions in a complex system are extremely sensitive, even the slightest shift will totally change the outcome.
Besides academics and other more intellectual pursuits, chaos theory can also be used to analyze the OTR tire industry. Unlike the passenger, light truck and medium truck tire markets where there are only a few applications and the products have almost reached the commodity stage, OTR tires remain highly specialized. The engineering behind these complex tires continues to evolve, and while there is tremendous competition in other aspects of the tire industry, the OTR segment is relegated to only a handful of manufacturers with the resources to build the largest tires on the planet.
In order to better understand the relationship between supply and demand for OTR tires, the market must first be divided into three categories: small, large and giant.
Market segments
Small OTR tires are typically defined as those with 24- or 25-inch bead diameters that are primarily used on construction equipment such as small rubber-tire loaders and scrapers. When compared to the other segments in the OTR industry, there are definitely a lot more domestic and foreign manufacturers, so the likelihood of prolonged shortages is relatively small.
The large OTR tire market is primarily dedicated to quarry operations and mainly consists of tires with bead diameters that range from 33 inches to 49 inches. As the tire sizes get larger, the number of manufacturers gets smaller, so they are more susceptible to supply issues.
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