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Aftermarket sales expected to grow 15% by 2018

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The U.S. automotive aftermarket is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.6% through 2018, according to the 2015 Joint Channel Forecast Model, produced jointly by the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA) and the Auto Care Association.

The 2015 Joint Channel Forecast Model also predicts total aftermarket sales will grow from $246.7 billion in 2014 to $284.3 billion in 2018, an increase of nearly $38 billion — or 15% — over the four year period.

“The forecast model demonstrates that despite strong new vehicle sales, moderating gas prices and a slight improvement in miles driven, our industry can expect to see continued steady growth,” says Kathleen Schmatz, CEO and president of the Auto Care Association. “Why? The average age of vehicles, now up to 11.5 years is the oldest ever, and the age mix of vehicles continues to favor older vehicles, creating a robust sweet spot for service and repair.”

AASA President Bill Long says, “The 2015 Joint Channel Forecast Model is an invaluable tool to help aftermarket suppliers realize more opportunities to achieve growth. The forecast shows continued growth but yet our industry is changing, placing greater value on forecasting tools such as these.”

The market sizing and forecast is conducted on behalf of AASA and the Auto Care Association by IHS Automotive, an economic and market information firm. It is based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s Economic Census, IMR and Polk data, and proprietary IHS Automotive’s economic analysis and forecasting models. The Joint Channel Forecast Model is available at the AASA website, www.aftermarketsuppliers.org, and in the Auto Care Association’s 2016 Digital Auto Care Factbook, available at www.autocare.org.

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