John Healy (on right) met with Saul Ludwig at the Specialty Equipment Market Association (SEMA) Show in Las Vegas last November. Ludwig wrote MTD’s Your Marketplace column for almost 40 years before retiring in 2012.
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2018 Was a Year of Change, 2019 Will Be a Year of the Impact

What transpired in the tire industry in 2018 and what will happen in 2019? John Healy, a managing director and research analyst with Northcoast Research Holdings LLC based in Cleveland, Ohio, and author of MTD’s monthly column Your Marketplace, took on our questions and offered his thoughts and predictions.

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Unit Sales Volumes Were Up Nearly 2%

Our recent discussions with dealers leave us with a view that sell-out trends improved in May versus the prior year’s period, re-accelerating from year-over-year contractions early in the year. While always somewhat subjective, we note commentary from installers was at the highest level since October 2017. From a volume standpoint, surveyed dealers reported they saw unit sales volumes up nearly 2% relative to the previous year’s period.

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Dealers Have Upbeat Outlook for Volume Trends Going Forward

According to the results of our survey, demand for passenger and light truck replacement tires at retail was essentially the same in February versus the prior year’s period, which mitigates some of the positive momentum the industry had built since October 2017.

John Healy and Nick Mitchell are research analysts for Northcoast Research Holdings.
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Dealers are seeing early stages of release of pent-up tire demand

Dealers reported that July sales trends were much improved relative to June. The respondents of our survey noted that unit volumes were essentially flat, which marks a significant improvement from June when dealers indicated that passenger replacement tire sales fell 1.1% year-over-year.

News

Will consumers release pent-up tire demand?

"Some consumers have delayed tire replacements to the point that we will see some pent-up demand released in the coming months as consumers adjust to the incremental headwind created by the expiration of the payroll tax earlier in the year," reports John Healy and Nick Mitchell, analysts for Northcoast Research Holdings LLC based in Cleveland, Ohio.

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Lower gas prices remain key to releasing pent-up demand

Tire dealers reported that lackluster sales continued during April as passenger tire unit volume at retail was essentially flat. While the 0.2% decline that dealers reported is certainly an improvement over the 1.1% decline that was reported in March, it’s important to remember that Easter was in March this year, compared to 2012, when the holiday occurred in April. This calendar shift effectively gave dealers an additional selling day this year, which obviously benefited the reported numbers.

John Healy and Nick Mitchell
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Service sales are seen as a bright spot in an otherwise soft market

After reporting a modest sales lift in February, the dealers we surveyed indicated that soft sales trends reemerged during March. Indeed, we were disappointed with the responses from our survey as we thought that there was a good chance that momentum would build from February’s improvement — especially as the disbursement of tax refunds normalized and the price of gasoline fell throughout the month.

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