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Forecast: U.S. Automotive Aftermarket Will Grow 3.7% Through 2019

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The U.S. automotive aftermarket is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.7% through 2019, according to the “2016 Joint Channel Forecast Model” produced jointly by the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA) and the Auto Care Association.

The 2016 Joint Channel Forecast Model also predicts that the total aftermarket sales will grow from $257.4 billion in 2015 to $296.3 billion in 2019, an increase of nearly $39 billion over the four year period.

“The forecast model demonstrates that despite strong new vehicle sales, moderating gas prices and improved miles driven are conditions conducive to continued steady growth,” says Bill Hanvey, Auto Care Association president and CEO. “Why? The average age of light vehicles, now up to 11.6 years is the oldest ever, and the age mix of vehicles continues to favor older vehicles, creating a robust sweet spot for service and repair.”

“The automotive aftermarket is a large and stable industry whose impressive growth, even through the Great Recession, is forecasted to continue,” said Bill Long, president and chief operating officer, AASA. “The ‘Joint Channel Forecast Model’ is a valuable tool for all industry stakeholders in planning and positioning your business to capitalize on the opportunities ahead.”

The market sizing and forecast is conducted on behalf of AASA and the Auto Care Association by IHS Automotive, the renowned economic and market information firm. It is based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s Economic Census, IMR and Polk data, and proprietary IHS Automotive’s economic analysis and forecasting models.

The Joint Channel Forecast Model is available at the AASA website, www.aftermarketsuppliers.org, and in the Auto Care Association’s 2017 Digital Auto Care Factbook, available at www.autocare.org.

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