Uncertainty Weighs Down Trucking

ACT Research says the ongoing trade war continues to weigh on the for-hire trucking market's recovery.

"For for-hire carriers, still managing the longest downturn in recent history, initial tariffs in 1H did two things," according to ACT President and Senior Analyst Ken Vieth. They "temporarily pushed retail sales above replacement levels, stalling a necessary capacity contraction and prolonging a rate recovery." And in addition, "large macro demand pull-forward has elevated the risk of weaker goods demand in (the second half), potentially prolonging the path to recovery.

"Vocational, like the tractor market, continues to be hampered in the short-to-medium term by policy fluctuations related to tariffs, federal funds and emissions regulations,” he says. “Also softness in end markets, like housing, are not helpful. However, secular trends regarding utilities, roads and data centers remain positive for vocational in the long run.”

“With freight rates remaining at low levels, a potential freight air-pocket inbound after a large goods pull-forward, tariff-driven goods inflation inbound, a pullback by private fleets after their significant 2023-2024 market share grab, uncertainty surrounding EPA’27, and ongoing uncertainty around US economic policy, there is little evidence to support a more constructive 2026 outlook. Additionally, the newly announced §232 tariffs on imported heavy trucks adds to uncertainty in the short term."