The light duty automotive aftermarket will produce $390 billion in retail sales in 2023, according to the Joint Channel Forecast.
Those light duty automotive sales are expected to reach $435 billion by 2026.
These numbers are pulled from the Motor & Equipment Manufacturers Association MEMA, the Auto Care Association and S&P Global Mobility Joint Channel Forecast webinar, which covered trends and forecasts for the automotive aftermarket.
Shane Norton, a senior director within the economics and country risk team at S&P Global, led the discussion.
“The nearly 20% increase in U.S. light duty aftermarket sales in the past two years was driven by strong demand and high prices,” says Norton.
He continues saying that inflation is still significant, but the economy is “past peak inflation.” The supply chain issues are resolving, and new vehicles are beginning to “bounce back.”
2023 is expecting to see an 8% growth in the U.S. light-duty aftermarket sales and average annual growth from 2023 through 2026 is “forecast to be under 5% as inflation returns to normal.”
As for the U.S. aftermarket retail sales, S&P finds that there was an 8.2% growth, but retail sales still underperformed the overall market in 2022.
“At just under 6% growth, both general auto part stores and tire dealers should underperform the market in 2023,” says Norton.
The vehicle age is set at 12.5 years, according to the forecast, which is three months older than the 2022 vehicle age.
“Vehicles returning to the fleet are headed to VIO being higher,” continues Norton.
In 2022, services grew and spending on goods declined, but goods and services inflation reversed as imbalances resolve.
Norton says the market is through supply chain bottlenecks but notices that distributors aren’t “bulking up” as much as they used to on products and are more cautious about buying because of the supply issues last year.
The labor market remains tight and wage inflation has slowed down but is still elevated. And consumers are holding onto their vehicles longer and older vehicles are picking up steam.
