New Vehicle Sales on Upswing

Despite economic uncertainty, Cox Automotive’s annual forecast shows that new vehicle sales in 2025 will hit 16.3 million, the best sales year since 2019.

"Sales volume in December is expected to fall 3.5% from last December, but rise by 12.7% from November,” say Cox Automotive officials. 

Data from Kelley Blue Book, which is owned by Cox Automotove, finds that despite a shaky fourth quarter, new vehicle sales in 2025 are projected to grow to 1.8% year-over-year.

2025 was "a good year for new-vehicle sales,” says Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive.

He adds that the fourth quarter of 2025 showed an "expected slowdown, as headwinds from tariffs, inflation and reduced EV incentives weigh on the market after nine surprisingly strong months. Still, consumer demand has kept the new-vehicle market healthy throughout 2025.” 

Additionally, the report shows that General Motors was "expected to end the year as the top-selling automaker in the U.S. for the fourth consecutive year, with a total market share of 17.3%, up from 16.8% in 2024.” 

Data also finds that “market share for the top four sellers – General Motors, Toyota Motor Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Hyundai Motor Co. – increased 2.6 points in 2025, while nearly all other automakers saw declines in both sales and share.”

In Cox Automotive’s 2026 forecasts for the U.S. automotive market, the company’s economic and industry insights team projects new vehicle sales pace will decline by 2.4% to 15.8 million units. 

"Factors such as slower economic growth, less job creation and the lack of EV tax incentives are expected to affect vehicle sales in the year ahead,” the report says.