Van Batenburg: What Happens to EVs Without Incentives?

With the federal incentives for electric vehicles (EVs) canceled, EVs will have to stand on their own merits. There are many things we can worry about today. If similar events can be found in the past, we can study those and we can learn from them.

Let us go back to beginning of hybrids (HEVs) in America and look at incentives. In December 2000, Honda introduced a special Bridgestone tire, made for their new Insight hybrid. The design was already in use on the Toyota Prius in Japan, but that hybrid had not made it here yet. All models of the Prius were right hand drive and the high-voltage battery pack, using round cells, took up a lot of trunk space. The Prius made it here about eight months later as a model year 2001 with the steering wheel moved over and a smaller battery pack — same voltage and amp hours — in the trunk. The Bridgestone tires were a bit wider than those on the Insight

There were no incentives to drive sales and only two OEMs to compete with each other. They sold in small numbers at first. The Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPAct 2005), signed by President George W. Bush, provided a federal income tax credit of up to $3,400 to hybrid buyers. Ford introduced their Escape HEV at that time. With the incentive and more choices, many fleets and consumers were moving into a high-voltage world. Sales went up.

June 2008 saw the price for a barrel of oil hit almost $150 and gasoline price signage changed almost daily. Hybrids were in big demand. The market had shifted almost overnight. Oil prices settled down and so did sales of hybrids.

In 2010, all the federal incentives for hybrids went away. What about sales? They continued on. EVs were on the horizon. In late-2010, I ordered two all-electric Nissan Leafs, one in Oregon and the other in California, as they were not for sale on the East Coast.

Alan Nagle, a General Motors trainer from Canada, called me to see if I liked the Leaf. That led me to a purchase a Chevy Volt at a dealership on Long Island. A mid-trim Volt was just shy of $45,000. Alan was doing me a favor, but they wanted all the money the next day. I took delivery soon after.

In model year 2011, the $7,500 incentives were added to all EVs. EV sales climbed up. 2017 was a pivotal year, as the Telsa Model 3 went into production and the race was on. Incentives have been used for years.

My older brother, Scott Van Batenburg, worked for the United States Treasury after graduating from Clark University in Worcester, Mass., and Stanford University in Palo Alto, Calif. Being only four years apart, our conversations were often about business and taxes. I learned a lot from Scott. One discussion was tax incentives and interest rates. This was in the late-1960s. It went like this: “If we need more homes built, lower the home mortgage rate. More roads needed to be built? Raise the tax on a gallon of gasoline.”

I was learning at a young age more about business. Little did I know I would start my business in 1977. Scott knew stuff.

A good technician cannot fix a complex problem on any vehicle, without discipline based on science, logic and reason. Without that outlook and an education, parts are swapped and prayers are said.

If EV sales go the same path as HEVs did, consumers will still buy them. Used ones will be sold and the same pattern will develop. Do you want to be a part of that? I definitely would!

Did you know that at the end of September 2025, the federal government also ended the $4,000 incentive on used EVs and plug-in hybrid vehicles?

Automotive Career Development Center, my HEV-EV technician training company, added one more plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV) vehicle in September, a 2018 Honda Clarity plug-in hybrid. It is unique on many levels in terms of advanced systems. The regenerative brakes and transmission are Honda advancements. Even the fender skirts at the rear wheels provide advantages — little things that add up to better range.

EVs will continue to be sold. Prices will come down for base EV models. EV tires also will improve. Research engineers are working on new technologies that will reduce tire wear, improve EV range and make tires quieter. Stay away from EVs and you will slowly lose your customers and your future growth.