Our recent industry check-ins with tire dealers indicate that retail sellout trends for the month of September remained in growth mode, but were slightly below August results.
Independent dealers highlighted average sellout increases of 0.8% in September, down slightly from a 1.6% increase in August, which brought third quarter dynamic trend to growth of just under 1.1%, which compares to declines of approximately 0.6% in the first half of the year.
All considered, we look at trends during the third quarter as a win for the industry, with three straight months of reported retail gains.
Looking closer at volume for the month of September on a regional basis, we note that geographies in the Midwest, Northeast, and Southeast all reported positive volume gains. Other regions saw flat or negative volume trends, with the Southwest seeing the weakest trends, down a moderate 1.3% year-over-year.
From our view, we saw summer trends that were positive and fall appears to have started strong, with the leaves turning and the ongoing football season putting winter weather considerations and replacement activity higher on the consumer’s list of priorities.
Looking forward, we note that October has a softer comp, with October 2024 seeing retail sell-out volumes down 1.7%. Given a healthy increase in September and the weather beginning to change in some regions, we would not be surprised to see October volumes flat or even slightly positive.
Given volatile industry conditions due to cost inflation and other macroeconomic factors, we look at several data points to assess the health of automobile travel demand, which correlates to tire usage and wear.
Looking to miles driven over the last month, which has a significant correlation with the need for a new set of tires, trends were down low single digits during September following a low single digit decline in the second quarter. The third quarter showed average declines of 1.9%. More specifically, our Miles Driven Momentum Index registered a 1.1% year-over-year decrease in September, which followed a 1.1% decrease in August. We note that the month showed slight declines versus a healthy 1.2% comp in September 2024.
We continue to see miles driven trends ahead of pre-pandemic trends and expect to continue to see flat to slightly elevated trends.
Dealer commentary suggests consumer demand for PLT replacement tires was positive on a net basis compared to September 2023. We note a net 40% of independent dealer contacts saw positive demand trends during September, down sequentially from 44% demand trend in August.
Consumer deferment and trade-down have been consistent themes over the past several months and we believe that we may have seen it begin to soften as consumers start to think about winter weather.
We do note that consumers continue to trade down to tier-two and tier-three tires, but see a positive rate of replacement year-over-year. But on the negative side, dealers continue to call out soft trends for premium tier-one tires.
A look at tiers
Looking at the best and worst performers from a mix point of view, our recent survey of tire dealers indicates tier-two and tier-three brands were the most in-demand from consumers during September. This marks the first of tier two being the most in-demand segment since January of this year.
We continue to see weak trends in tier one, with a tough macroeconomic environment putting a level of strain on consumers leading to a trade down dynamic. With tier two and tier three being on top of our survey, we continue to believe that consumers opted for better-value tires in September.
We do see a high level of volatility in our month-to-month tier rankings, but expect tier-two brands to be the most in-demand segment long-term, offering consumers a balance between cost and performance.
About the Author

John Healy
John Healy is a managing director and research analyst with Northcoast Research Holdings LLC, based in Cleveland, Ohio. Healy covers a variety of subsectors of the automotive industry and writes MTD's monthly Your Marketplace column. If you would like to be included in the monthly dealer discussions, contact him at [email protected].