Healy: Tier-Two Tops Latest Survey

Our recent check-ins with independent tire dealers indicate that retail sellout trends were roughly up in the low single digits year-over-year in October 2025, ahead of September results.

Dealers highlighted average sellout increases of 1.2% during October, up from an increase of 0.8% the previous month, with trends flat to slightly up on average during the third quarter of 2024.

Looking more closely at volume for October 2025 on a regional basis, the Southeast, Midwest and Southwest experienced positive volumes. Other regions saw flat or negative volumes, with the Northwest experiencing the weakest trends, down a moderate 1.3% year-over-year.

From our view, the fall of 2025 yielded strong sellout trends with September and October both showing increases. Early fall broughtt a lift in seasonal activity as dropping temperatures and visible signs of the changing seasons encourages consumers to address maintenance and replacement needs.

We also note that November had a flatter comp, with retail sellout volumes of 0.7% due to a healthy increase in October and the weather continuing to change in some regions. We would not be surprised to see full-month November volumes to be flat or event slightly positive.

We note that 62% of dealers who responded to our latest survey reported that they experienced positive demand  trends in October, up sequentially from 40% demand seen in September. Consumer deferment and trade-down have been consistent themes over the past several months and we believe that we may have seem this begin to soften as consumers think about winter weather.

We do note that consumers continue to trade down to tier-two and tier-three tires, but see a positive rate of replacement year-over-year. Dealers also continue to call out softer trends for tier-one tires.

Tier-two and tier-three

Our recent survey of tire dealers indicates tier-two and tier-three brands remain the most in-demand by consumers for the second month in a row. This marks the third time that tier-two tires have been in the most in-demand segment, with the first month being January 2025.

We note that October is in-line with the long-term trends we have seen in our survey, with tier-two being the most in-demand segment in the decades-plus history of our Tire Demand Index.

Tier-three maintained a position of being second as consumers try to balance value and performance as they prepare for winter.

We continue to see weaker sellout trends in tier-one, with a tough macroeconomic environment putting a level of strain on consumers, leading to a trade-down dynamic.

With tier-two and tier-three being atop our survey, we continue to believe that consumers are opting for less-expensive tires. We do see a high level of votality in our month-to-month tier rankings, but expect tier-two brands to be the most in-demand segment long-term, offering consumers a balance between cost and performance.

A look at miles driven

Given volatile industry conditions due to the cost of inflation and other macroeconomic factors, we continue to look at several data points to assess the health of automobile travel demand, which correlates to tire usage and wear.

Looking at miles driven during the last month, trends were down in the low single digits during October, following a low  single digit decline during the second quarter of 2025. The third quarter, on average, showed declines of 1.9%.

More specifically, our Miles Drivenn Momentum Index showed declines versus a healthy 5.5% comp in October 2024. We continue to see miles driven trends ahead of pre-pandemic trends and expect to continue to see trends that are flat to slightly elevated.