Healy: Demand for Tier-Two Increases

Recent tire dealer commentary suggests consumer demand for replacement passenger and light truck tires was positive on a net basis in November 2025 compared to November 2024. 

We note that a net 69% of our independent dealer contacts saw positive demand trends during November, up sequentially from 62% demand trend in October 2024.

Consumer deferment and trade-down have been consistent themes over the past several months, but we believe we will continue to see this soften as more consumers start to think about winter weather in many parts of the country. 

Our recent check-ins with tire dealers indicate that retail sellout trends were roughly up in the low single digits, year-over-year, in November, slightly ahead of October results.

Independent dealers highlighted average sellout increases of 1.7%, up from a 1.3% increase in October, with trends flat to slightly up on average during the third quarter. 

Looking more closely at volume for the month of November on a regional basis, the Southeast, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Midwest all saw positive volumes. Other regions saw flat or negative volume trends, with the Southwest seeing the weakest trends, down roughly 1% year-over-year.  

Looking back, we saw summer trends that were positive and the fall months showed strong trends, with September, October and November all seeing increases in retail sellout trends. Fall brought a lift in seasonal activity, as dropping temperatures and visible signs of the changing seasons encouraged consumers to address maintenance and replacement needs. 

December followed with a positive comp following a healthy increase in November and with the weather continuing to change in some regions, we would not be surprised to see full-month volumes flat or even slightly positive in December.

Given volatile industry conditions due to inflation and other macroeconomic factors, we continue to examine several data points to assess the health of automobile travel demand, which correlates to tire usage and wear.

Looking at miles driven over the last month, which has a significant correlation with the need for a new set of tires, trends were down in the low single digits during November, following a low single digit decline in the second quarter of the year.  

The third quarter, on average, showed declines of 1.9%, followed by low single digit drops. Our Miles Driven Momentum Index registered roughly a 1% year-over-year decrease in November 2025, but improved from a decline of 3.1% in October.

We note that the month showed declines versus a flat-to-slightly down November 2024. We continue to see miles driven trends track ahead of pre-pandemic trends and expect to continue to see flat-to-slightly-elevated trends. 

Tier-two on the upward swing

We also note that consumers continue to trade down to tier-two and tier-three tires, but some dealers have called out firmer trends for tier-one tires.  

Our most recent survey of tire dealers indicates that tier-two and tier-one brands were the most in-demand during November. This marks the third consecutive month of tier-two brands being the most in-demand segment and the fourth time this happened on a year-to-date basis.

Last month’s trends were in-line with the long-term trends we have seen from our survey, with tier-two being the most in-demand segment in the decade-plus history of our Tire Demand Index. Tier-one brands have taken back the second position as consumers look to balance performance and value.

We also see, for the first time this year, tier-three in the third spot when compared to tier-one and tier-two. With tier-two being atop our survey, we view this as a sign that consumers are showing preference for higher-tier brands as the weather in some regions continues to change.  

We do see a high level of volatility in our month-to-month tier rankings, but expect tier-two brands to be the most in-demand segment long-term, offering consumers a balance between cost and performance.